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Key Matchup to watch when they have the ball: Last year’s UGA-AU game was decided early on when UGA got after Cox and rattled him some. He never looked settled and by the end of the game he looked positively shaken. He’s prone to hold onto the ball. He’s been sacked at least once in every game this season (except last week in limited action) and even going back to last year when he had some veterans on the OL he was sacked in all but 3 games (Tulane, Ole Miss and Ark St didn’t get to him), heck in 18 of his 33 career starts he’s been sacked 2 or more times so there’s no reason to expect we can’t get to him. If we can pressure Cox and keep them in long yardage conversion situations, we can take them out of running situations and make Cox carry the offense, something he’s struggled to do at various times.

AU Defense

Not surprisingly, AU sports a stout defense. They’ve put together a strong unit despite suffering some personnel losses from last season. They are 10th nationally against the pass and 24th against the run. Their total defense ranking of 8th is incredibly impressive, as they are allowing less than 294 ypg. Even more impressive is that they are 5th nationally in scoring defense, allowing less than 15 ppg. Despite the presence of All-American DE Quintin Groves, AU is struggling to pressure the QB this season (9th in the SEC in sacks), something they’ve done extremely well in recent memory.

The Tiger DL is solid. Sr. All-American Quentin Groves is currently tied for the AU career record in sacks and is a quick, strong DE that gets upfield in a hurry. He dislocated 3 toes in their win over FL earlier this season and missed a few games, but in his place So. Antonio Coleman has emerged as a real threat, enough so to allow Groves to move to LB. Coleman’s 12.5 tackles for loss have him currently tied for 5th in the conference. His 6 sacks lead the team over Groves’ 3. Sen’Derrick Marks holds down the opposite DE spot and at 6-1, 290+, he’s more of a run-stopper. The interior of the AU DL is capably handled by Sr. Josh Thompson and Jr. Pat Sims. Thompson’s 43 tackles rank 5th on the team, surprising for an interior DL, especially one who barely tops 6’. Sims is a beast at 6-4, 320+.

The AU LB corps is made up of a fleet of small, fast guys that they’ve featured the last few years with one major exception. They lost senior Will Herring off last year’s unit but haven’t missed a beat this year. Junior first year starter Chris Evans (6-0, 221) leads the team in tackles. Sophomore Tray Blackmon (6-0, 223) has struggled with injuries for the 2nd year but when he’s healthy he seems to always be around the ball. You may recall he had a big early game fumble recovery last season against us. Quintin Groves has moved to OLB and plays there in certain formations, shifting to DE at times as well. He’s athletic enough to pull it off and brings some serious size to the group, which even in the 2-deep features a no one (outside of Groves) much bigger than 6-1, 220 or so.

The Tiger secondary continues the undersized, fast theme shown in the LBs. They’ve rotated several guys at safety, with the main two guys being Eric Brock and Zac Etheridge. Both are in the top 4 in total tackles. Sophomore Aairon Savage and Freshman Mike McNeil provide excellent depth. Senior Patrick Lee has started 19 career games at CB (including every one this year) and has played well on the year, pulling in 4 INTs. Sophomore Jarraud Powers starts opposite him at the other corner spot, moving in to replace departed David Irons. The secondary has played MUCH better than projected coming into the season.

Bottom Line: This is a stout bunch both on the ground and through the air. When you look at their incredible numbers against the pass you have to remember that in the SEC they’ve faced the following teams: MSU, UF, Vandy, Arkansas, LSU and Ole Miss. Of that group, only UF and LSU can be considered good passing teams. While AU did manage to hold UF to 201 yards through the air, LSU teed off for 319 yards. I’m not saying we’re the cream of the SEC crop in terms of passing by any means, but we’re certainly better through the air than most of those teams they’ve faced. The thing that makes our offense so dangerous right now is the development of Moreno. With his steady rushing, it’s allowed Stafford to continue his development and avoid those costly turnovers that marred much of last season. We’ll need a focused, efficient effort like we saw in Jacksonville in order to put points on the board Saturday. AU hasn’t gotten to the QB as much as they have in the past. I still expect them to be their typical aggressive selves under Muschamp. Look for us to utilize screens and counters to try and neutralize their speed.

Key matchup to watch when we have the ball: I think Chandler could have another big day due to matchups against considerably smaller defenders plus we throw to him pretty regularly. If you must look at one guy though, pick Brannen Southerland. If he’s in the game, you can bet he’ll be involved in the play. Whether it be as a lead blocker, pass protector or passing option, he’s playing at such a high level of each that he’s a FB worth watching. If Moreno is going to have the day we all hope he does, Southerland will likely be playing a large part.

The AU Game Overall

Nothing in the numbers points to one team being the clearcut favorite. Georgia has the better offense, Auburn has the better defense. Both teams are playing fairly well but neither is close to playing at an elite level that both schools have grown accostumed to. The relatively high rankings of the two schools has more to do with parity in college football than actual great play from either of the two, although each school does have their key wins. AU’s played well in Athens over the years. UGA has played well at home this season (with the exception of the SC game).

In a game featuring two well matched teams, the result could easily boil down to two things (assuming the defenses and offense play as they have this year…a particularly poor assumption given both teams’ inconsistencies, but an assumption I’m going to have to make) special teams and turnovers. Shocker, huh? I know, it’s not earth shattering or profound, but football ain’t roacket science and in some games such as this, it becomes even more important to control the ball. These factors are obviously important in every game, but in games that have as much riding on them as this one, these things become even more amplified. Special teams come into play big time from a field position standpoint, especially against a defense as formidable as Auburn’s. Turnovers always play a big role, as you have to look back no further than last season to see what can happen if a team starts getting careless with the ball, as Cox’ poor outing contributed directly to UGA’s early lead and subsequent win.